Event

PSI Vaccines SIG Webinar: Statistical Immune Correlate Analysis of Hemagglutination Inhibition Titers for an mRNA-based Influenza Vaccine

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Date: Thursday 22nd October 2026
Time: 15:00 - 16:00 GMT
Location: Online via Zoom

Who is this event intended for? Statisticians with an interest in vaccine development

What is the benefit of attending? To learn about the recent application of statistical immune correlate analysis in vaccine development. Specifically, an application of such analyses to evaluate hemagglutination inhibition titers for an influenza vaccine

Overview

Hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HAI) titers are widely utilized as correlates of protection (CoP) and surrogate endpoints for predicting influenza vaccine efficacy (VE). In the phase 3 FLUENT trial (NCT06602024), which enrolled over 40,000 participants ≥50 years, the mRNA-based seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, demonstrated superior VE and elicited stronger antibody responses than a licensed standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine.

Here, in the immune correlate analysis of the FLUENT trial, we evaluated hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers against influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B/Victoria strains as correlates of risk (CoR) and CoP for strain-specific influenza-like illness (ILI) following vaccination. Across multiple statistical and causal inference frameworks, higher Day 29 influenza A strain-specific HAI titers were consistently associated with lower ILI and higher relative VE. The estimated hazard ratios per one standard deviation increase in HAI titers were 0.48 (95% CI: 0.43–0.54; P<0.001) for A/H1N1 and 0.66 (0.58–0.74; P<0.001) for A/H3N2.

Although B/Victoria results in FLUENT were inconclusive, likely reflecting limited cases and regional variability, pooled analyses across phase 3 trials showed consistent inverse associations for both vaccines. These findings support post-vaccination HAI titers as a statistical CoP and surrogate marker of clinical protection for mRNA-based influenza vaccines, consistent with conventional inactivated influenza vaccines.  

Registration

This webinar is free to attend for PSI Members & Non-Members.
To register for this event, please click here.

Speaker details

Speaker Biography

Chong Ma, Associate Director, Moderna Therapeutics Inc.

Chong Ma, PhD, is an Associate Director at Moderna, specializing in statistical methodology and biomarker research for respiratory and latent virus vaccines and oncology therapeutics. His work focuses on developing and applying advanced statistical models to evaluate clinical biomarkers as surrogate endpoints and correlates of risk and/or protection across multiple vaccine platforms, including influenza, COVID-19, and RSV. Dr. Ma has authored several peer-reviewed publications on statistical methodology and correlates of protection modeling.

 

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